Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Pistons vs Raptors NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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The Pistons are in full-on tank mode, which may render this edition of the Casey Bowl a little less compelling. With the Raptors thriving on defense and facing a depleted roster, our NBA picks are fading Detroit.

The latest edition of the Casey Bowl is here as the Detroit Pistons visit the Toronto Raptors. 

Pistons head coach Dwane Casey has basically cursed his the Raptors after they let him go the season prior to them winning the NBA Finals. Casey was 9-3 against his former team heading into this season but has Toronto reversed the curse?

The Raptors have won all three meetings with the Pistons this year, albeit going 0-3 against the spread in the process.

Speaking of process — the tank is on in Detroit, as the Pistons have been getting blown out with regularity of late. But is that enough to back the Raps as big home chalk in this Eastern Conference battle?

I break down the betting odds and bring you my best bet in NBA picks and predictions Pistons vs. Raptors.

Pistons vs Raptors best odds

Pistons vs Raptors picks and predictions

The Casey Bowl or the Casey Curse has been a prominent part of Raptors lore ever since the team dismissed Coach of the Year at the time, Dwane Casey, just prior to their championship season. 

The cost of that championship is that Casey apparently gets to own the Raptors for the remainder of his career. Even if the team he coaches is the Pistons. Casey had gone 9-3 straight up and against the spread in this matchup since becoming the Pistons’ head coach.

But things have changed this season. At least a little. The Raptors have won all three meetings this season but are 0-3 ATS. 

The Raptors are massive chalk this time around. And that’s because the tank is on for the Pistons. Detroit has won just one game since February 12. But the tank has been more apparent than ever recently. They are resting starters with regularity, and have lost four games in a row straight up and against the spread. All as 10-point underdogs or greater.

Tonight, the Pistons will be without: Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stweart, Rodney McGruder, and Alec Burks. Meaning Detroit’s most reliable scorers are Marvin Bagley and Killian Hayes.

This all means getting buckets has been tough for the Pistons. Over the last 10 games, they rank 29th in scoring, putting up just 105 points per game, and are also 29th in field goal percentage over that span. 

Now, the Pistons will face a Raptors defense that has been much improved since inserting Jakob Poeltl in the starting lineup, ranking ninth in defensive efficiency since coming out of the All-Star break. They also rank seventh in scoring defense over that stretch giving up 111.2 points per game.

The Pistons’ team total for this one is set at 104.5. They have scored 100 points or fewer in three of their last four games and 104 or fewer in six of their last 10. I’m betting buckets will be tough to come by for the Pistons once again.

My best bet: Pistons team total Under 104.5 (-120 at PointsBet)

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Pistons vs Raptors spread analysis

While the Pistons have been a disaster lately, and haven’t covered the spread as double-digit underdogs in four consecutive games, 14.5 feels like a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that just fell flat on its face against the Indiana Pacers.

And while the Raptors’ defense has improved post-trade deadline, the half-court offense is still a problem. The team ranks 18th in offensive rating and 28th in effective field goal percentage since coming out of the All-Star break.

Additionally, this Raptors team continues to be frustrating to handicap. They had a four-game stretch where they went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against some solid competition. Then Toronto followed that up by losing 118-114 to the Pacers, made worse by the fact Indiana was without Tyrese Haliburton.

It doesn’t help that Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., and Precious Achiuwa are all questionable for this matchup, potentially hurting the Raptors’ depth.

And obviously, Dwane Casey and the Pistons, inexplicably at times, continue to give the Raptors problems. In fact, the Pistons have covered the spread in nine consecutive meetings between these two Eastern Conference foes.

Sure. I understand why the Raptors are favorites of this size in this spot. But I’m not sure how anyone who follows them would feel comfortable laying this many points with them in the Casey Bowl. I’m staying away from the spread.

Pistons vs Raptors Over/Under analysis

The total for this Eastern Conference matchup hit the board at 225 and has been bet down to 223.5 as of Friday afternoon. And basically for all the reasons above, I’d tend to agree with the early money.

I’m already betting on a low-scoring output for the Pistons, who have been a great Under bet in the second half of the season, going 8-20 O/U. I broke down that the Raptors’ offense is still not something to be relied on, particularly if Barnes and Trent are unable to go. 

This game might not be as ugly as the 95-91 snooze fest these two teams played back on Feb. 25, but it probably won’t be that much better.

Pistons vs Raptors betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the Pistons’ last five road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Raptors.

Pistons vs Raptors game info

Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date: Friday, March 24, 2023
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Detroit, Sportsnet

Pistons vs Raptors key injuries

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