Thursday, February 22, 2024

2023 Miami Open Betting Picks, Odds, Predictions and Tennis Best Bets 3/22

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This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.

Wednesday at the Miami Open features first-round action from both the men’s and women’s singles draws. The top 32 seeds in both draws have byes into the second round, but there are plenty of intriguing matchups for tennis fans to peruse Wednesday. A pair of household names from the past decade in the men’s game will be in action on the hard courts of Miami, as will one of the top recent performers on the WTA Tour. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, as well as specific bonuses for users located in Massachusetts, where online sports betting recently went live.

All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players’ previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.

Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert

Pedro Martinez (+225) vs. Quentin Halys

Martinez is a nice value as a substantial underdog against Halys, who is just 5-8 in tour-level matches this year and has four losses to players ranked outside the top 100. While Martinez has dropped to No. 121 following a 4-7 start to 2023, he was ranked as high as No. 40 within the past year, while the 79th-ranked Halys has never entered the top 60. Martinez won his first-round match at Indian Wells earlier this month, so perhaps he’s starting to find his game.

Gael Monfils (+195) vs. Ugo Humbert 

Monfils was understandably rusty in his return from a seven-month injury layoff in Indian Wells, but the 36-year-old Frenchman has spent most of his career firmly in the top 20 and is still a dangerous floater as he begins to rebuild his ranking. His compatriot Humbert is also far from his peak ranking, but Humbert’s drop from the top 30 to his current No. 78 was purely performance-based. Humbert already has four losses to players ranked outside the top 100 this year, and the 280th-ranked Monfils could well hand him a fifth.

Honorable Mention

Storm Hunter (+210) vs. Sofia Kenin

Miami Open Odds: Lock It In

Karolina Muchova (-360) vs. Jil Teichmann

Muchova has battled injuries since her semifinal breakthrough at the Australian Open in 2021, but she has looked healthy and effective this month. If we were constructing power rankings based on performance over the past month, Muchova would have a strong case for the top 10. She pushed Elena Rybakina to 6-4 in the third set last week after beating Victoria Azarenka en route to the quarterfinals in Indian Wells, but with those ranking points yet to be factored in ahead of Miami Open qualifying, Muchova had to win a couple matches just to get into the draw here. She dropped only six games across those two qualifying matches, which also gave Muchova an opportunity to get used to the court conditions ahead of this match against Teichmann, who is just 5-7 against players ranked in the top 150 this season.

Andy Murray (-475) vs. Dusan Lajovic

At this point in his career, Murray’s far from what he once was physically, but the former world No. 1 still has the innate ability to find ways to win. He’s 8-4 this year, and Murray’s loss to up-and-coming countryman Jack Draper in Indian Wells is his only defeat against a player ranked outside the top 40. Just one of Murray’s wins has come in straight sets, so he has had to work for his victories, but he’s likely to find a way past the 76th-ranked Lajovic, whose last main draw win on hard courts was over a year ago.

Honorable Mention

Linda Noskova (-425) vs. Lucia Bronzetti

Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets

Taro Daniel (-160) vs. Arthur Rinderknech 

Daniel has gone 8-2 in his previous two tournaments, including qualifying rounds. That strong stretch includes marquee wins over Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini, while Daniel’s losses came against a pair of top-25 staples in Alex de Minaur and Cameron Norrie. Rinderknech has been nowhere near that level recently. He’s still ranked 25 spots ahead of Daniel at No. 72, but the fading Frenchman is 1-6 in his last seven ATP main draw matches.

J.J. Wolf (-140) vs. Alexander Bublik

Expect plenty of aces in this battle of big servers. Wolf didn’t adjust well to the slower hard courts at Indian Wells and lost early to Marton Fucsovics, but the American is still a respectable 8-6 this season, including a run to the Round of 16 at the Australian Open. Meanwhile, the enigmatic Bublik is off to a dreadful start in 2023. He’s 4-11 at the ATP Tour level and has already lost to six opponents ranked outside the top 100. Bublik has a two-spot edge in the rankings at No. 48, but there’s little question that Wolf has been the far better player since the calendar flipped to 2023.

Honorable Mention

Fabio Fognini (+135) vs. Constant Lestienne 

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